BOL vs VEN
Bologna (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOL win 58.7% fair 1.70
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
VEN win 18.8% fair 5.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.6% / 21.7% / 16.7%.
Expected Goals
BOL
1.91
—
0.88
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOL 1-0 VEN | 11.7% | |
| BOL 2-0 VEN | 11.2% | |
| BOL 1-1 VEN | 10.3% | |
| BOL 2-1 VEN | 9.9% | |
| BOL 3-0 VEN | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOL goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).