CAG vs ATA
Cagliari (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 31.9% fair 3.13
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
ATA win 42.9% fair 2.33
Expected Goals
CAG
1.25
—
1.55
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 ATA | 11.8% | |
| CAG 0-1 ATA | 9.4% | |
| CAG 1-2 ATA | 9.1% | |
| CAG 1-0 ATA | 7.6% | |
| CAG 2-1 ATA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).