CAG vs BOL
Cagliari (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
CAG win 36.4% fair 2.74
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
BOL win 37.4% fair 2.67
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.6% / 26.0% / 38.5%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.30
—
1.37
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 BOL | 12.3% | |
| CAG 0-1 BOL | 9.5% | |
| CAG 1-0 BOL | 9.0% | |
| CAG 1-2 BOL | 8.4% | |
| CAG 2-1 BOL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).