CAG vs BOL
Cagliari (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 0-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.93
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CAG win 35.7% fair 2.80
Draw 28.4% fair 3.53
BOL win 36.0% fair 2.78
Expected Goals
CAG
1.12
—
1.16
BOL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): CAG ×0.900 (matched 11), BOL ×0.930 (matched 8). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 BOL | 13.3% | |
| CAG 0-1 BOL | 11.8% | |
| CAG 1-0 BOL | 11.5% | |
| CAG 0-0 BOL | 10.2% | |
| CAG 1-2 BOL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).