CAG vs COM
Cagliari (home) vs Como · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 24.9% fair 4.01
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
COM win 50.0% fair 2.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.6% / 24.8% / 52.7%.
Expected Goals
CAG
0.97
—
1.62
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 0-1 COM | 12.1% | |
| CAG 1-1 COM | 11.8% | |
| CAG 0-2 COM | 9.9% | |
| CAG 1-2 COM | 9.6% | |
| CAG 0-0 COM | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).