CAG vs FIO
Cagliari (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 44.5% fair 2.24
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
FIO win 29.9% fair 3.34
Expected Goals
CAG
1.52
—
1.19
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 FIO | 12.0% | |
| CAG 1-0 FIO | 10.1% | |
| CAG 2-1 FIO | 9.2% | |
| CAG 0-1 FIO | 7.9% | |
| CAG 2-0 FIO | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).