CAG vs FRO
Cagliari (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 44.7% fair 2.24
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
FRO win 29.6% fair 3.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.2% / 25.5% / 29.3%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.51
—
1.16
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 FRO | 12.1% | |
| CAG 1-0 FRO | 10.4% | |
| CAG 2-1 FRO | 9.1% | |
| CAG 0-1 FRO | 8.0% | |
| CAG 2-0 FRO | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).