CAG vs FRO
Cagliari (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
CAG win 50.0% fair 2.00
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
FRO win 24.6% fair 4.06
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.1% / 24.9% / 23.0%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.61
—
0.98
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-0 FRO | 12.1% | |
| CAG 1-1 FRO | 11.8% | |
| CAG 2-0 FRO | 9.7% | |
| CAG 2-1 FRO | 9.5% | |
| CAG 0-0 FRO | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).