CAG vs GEN
Cagliari (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 43.7% fair 2.29
Draw 26.9% fair 3.72
GEN win 29.4% fair 3.41
Expected Goals
CAG
1.38
—
1.07
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 GEN | 12.7% | |
| CAG 1-0 GEN | 11.9% | |
| CAG 0-1 GEN | 9.2% | |
| CAG 2-1 GEN | 8.8% | |
| CAG 0-0 GEN | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).