CAG vs INT
Cagliari (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (08-30 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CAG win 20.8% fair 4.82
Draw 21.1% fair 4.74
INT win 58.2% fair 1.72
Expected Goals
CAG
1.05
—
2.11
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-2 INT | 9.9% | |
| CAG 0-2 INT | 9.4% | |
| CAG 1-1 INT | 9.4% | |
| CAG 0-1 INT | 8.9% | |
| CAG 1-3 INT | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).