CAG vs JUV
Cagliari (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
CAG win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
JUV win 45.3% fair 2.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.2% / 25.4% / 47.4%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.10
—
1.54
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 JUV | 12.1% | |
| CAG 0-1 JUV | 11.0% | |
| CAG 1-2 JUV | 9.3% | |
| CAG 0-2 JUV | 8.4% | |
| CAG 1-0 JUV | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).