CAG vs JUV
Cagliari (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.92 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CAG win 26.1% fair 3.84
Draw 25.5% fair 3.91
JUV win 48.4% fair 2.07
Expected Goals
CAG
0.99
—
1.56
JUV
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): CAG ×0.918 (matched 11), JUV ×1.100 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 0-1 JUV | 12.1% | |
| CAG 1-1 JUV | 12.0% | |
| CAG 0-2 JUV | 9.5% | |
| CAG 1-2 JUV | 9.4% | |
| CAG 0-0 JUV | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).