CAG vs LAZ
Cagliari (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 27.2% fair 3.68
LAZ win 42.4% fair 2.36
Expected Goals
CAG
1.05
—
1.36
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 LAZ | 12.8% | |
| CAG 0-1 LAZ | 12.2% | |
| CAG 1-0 LAZ | 9.5% | |
| CAG 0-0 LAZ | 9.0% | |
| CAG 1-2 LAZ | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).