CAG vs LEC
Cagliari (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
CAG win 44.9% fair 2.23
Draw 27.0% fair 3.70
LEC win 28.1% fair 3.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.4% / 27.0% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.39
—
1.02
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 LEC | 12.7% | |
| CAG 1-0 LEC | 12.5% | |
| CAG 0-1 LEC | 9.1% | |
| CAG 0-0 LEC | 9.0% | |
| CAG 2-1 LEC | 8.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).