CAG vs MIL
Cagliari (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
CAG win 29.6% fair 3.38
Draw 25.7% fair 3.90
MIL win 44.7% fair 2.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.8% / 25.5% / 46.8%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.12
—
1.53
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 MIL | 12.1% | |
| CAG 0-1 MIL | 10.8% | |
| CAG 1-2 MIL | 9.3% | |
| CAG 0-2 MIL | 8.3% | |
| CAG 1-0 MIL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).