CAG vs MIL
Cagliari (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 26.2% fair 3.82
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
MIL win 48.4% fair 2.07
Expected Goals
CAG
1.01
—
1.58
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 MIL | 12.0% | |
| CAG 0-1 MIL | 11.8% | |
| CAG 1-2 MIL | 9.4% | |
| CAG 0-2 MIL | 9.3% | |
| CAG 1-0 MIL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).