CAG vs MON
Cagliari (home) vs Monza · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 47.1% fair 2.13
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
MON win 28.5% fair 3.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.9% / 24.0% / 28.0%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.68
—
1.23
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 MON | 11.2% | |
| CAG 2-1 MON | 9.5% | |
| CAG 1-0 MON | 9.1% | |
| CAG 2-0 MON | 7.7% | |
| CAG 1-2 MON | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).