CAG vs NAP
Cagliari (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 26.3% fair 3.80
Draw 24.9% fair 4.01
NAP win 48.8% fair 2.05
Expected Goals
CAG
1.06
—
1.63
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 NAP | 11.7% | |
| CAG 0-1 NAP | 11.1% | |
| CAG 1-2 NAP | 9.6% | |
| CAG 0-2 NAP | 9.1% | |
| CAG 1-0 NAP | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).