CAG vs PAR
Cagliari (home) vs Parma · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 28.2% fair 3.54
PAR win 26.7% fair 3.75
Expected Goals
CAG
1.30
—
0.91
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.8% | fair 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-0 PAR | 14.3% | |
| CAG 1-1 PAR | 13.0% | |
| CAG 0-0 PAR | 11.1% | |
| CAG 0-1 PAR | 10.0% | |
| CAG 2-0 PAR | 9.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).