CAG vs ROM
Cagliari (home) vs Roma · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 21.2% fair 4.71
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
ROM win 56.3% fair 1.78
Expected Goals
CAG
0.98
—
1.91
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 0-1 ROM | 10.5% | |
| CAG 1-1 ROM | 10.4% | |
| CAG 0-2 ROM | 10.1% | |
| CAG 1-2 ROM | 9.9% | |
| CAG 0-3 ROM | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).