CAG vs SAS
Cagliari (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 40.2% fair 2.49
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
SAS win 34.1% fair 2.94
Expected Goals
CAG
1.43
—
1.31
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 SAS | 12.1% | |
| CAG 1-0 SAS | 9.3% | |
| CAG 2-1 SAS | 8.6% | |
| CAG 0-1 SAS | 8.5% | |
| CAG 1-2 SAS | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).