CAG vs TOR
Cagliari (home) vs Torino · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 41.0% fair 2.44
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
TOR win 33.8% fair 2.96
Expected Goals
CAG
1.49
—
1.34
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 TOR | 11.8% | |
| CAG 1-0 TOR | 8.8% | |
| CAG 2-1 TOR | 8.8% | |
| CAG 0-1 TOR | 7.9% | |
| CAG 1-2 TOR | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).