CAG vs UDI
Cagliari (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 42.5% fair 2.35
Draw 25.9% fair 3.85
UDI win 31.6% fair 3.17
Expected Goals
CAG
1.45
—
1.21
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-1 UDI | 12.3% | |
| CAG 1-0 UDI | 10.1% | |
| CAG 2-1 UDI | 8.9% | |
| CAG 0-1 UDI | 8.5% | |
| CAG 1-2 UDI | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).