CAG vs VEN
Cagliari (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CAG win 50.6% fair 1.98
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
VEN win 24.0% fair 4.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.2% / 25.0% / 22.7%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.60
—
0.96
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-0 VEN | 12.3% | |
| CAG 1-1 VEN | 11.9% | |
| CAG 2-0 VEN | 9.9% | |
| CAG 2-1 VEN | 9.5% | |
| CAG 0-0 VEN | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).