CAG vs VEN
Cagliari (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
CAG win 49.9% fair 2.00
Draw 25.2% fair 3.96
VEN win 24.9% fair 4.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.8% / 24.8% / 23.3%.
Expected Goals
CAG
1.62
—
1.00
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| CAG 1-0 VEN | 11.8% | |
| CAG 1-1 VEN | 11.8% | |
| CAG 2-0 VEN | 9.6% | |
| CAG 2-1 VEN | 9.6% | |
| CAG 0-0 VEN | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CAG goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).