COM vs ATA
Como (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 52.8% fair 1.89
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
ATA win 23.9% fair 4.18
Expected Goals
COM
1.84
—
1.12
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 ATA | 10.7% | |
| COM 2-1 ATA | 9.8% | |
| COM 1-0 ATA | 9.5% | |
| COM 2-0 ATA | 8.8% | |
| COM 3-1 ATA | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).