COM vs BOL
Como (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
COM win 53.2% fair 1.88
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
BOL win 23.1% fair 4.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.1% / 23.2% / 21.7%.
Expected Goals
COM
1.79
—
1.04
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 BOL | 11.0% | |
| COM 1-0 BOL | 10.6% | |
| COM 2-1 BOL | 9.8% | |
| COM 2-0 BOL | 9.5% | |
| COM 0-1 BOL | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).