COM vs CAG
Como (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
COM win 59.1% fair 1.69
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
CAG win 18.8% fair 5.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.3% / 21.2% / 16.6%.
Expected Goals
COM
1.97
—
0.91
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-0 CAG | 11.1% | |
| COM 2-0 CAG | 10.9% | |
| COM 1-1 CAG | 10.0% | |
| COM 2-1 CAG | 9.9% | |
| COM 3-0 CAG | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).