COM vs CAG
Como (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 61.5% fair 1.63
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
CAG win 16.8% fair 5.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.2% / 21.1% / 14.8%.
Expected Goals
COM
1.95
—
0.81
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-0 CAG | 12.4% | |
| COM 2-0 CAG | 12.1% | |
| COM 1-1 CAG | 10.0% | |
| COM 2-1 CAG | 9.7% | |
| COM 3-0 CAG | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).