COM vs FIO
Como (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 65.4% fair 1.53
Draw 19.4% fair 5.15
FIO win 15.2% fair 6.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.6% / 18.4% / 13.0%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.24
—
0.86
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.1% | fair 2.50 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 FIO | 11.3% | |
| COM 1-0 FIO | 10.1% | |
| COM 2-1 FIO | 9.7% | |
| COM 1-1 FIO | 8.7% | |
| COM 3-0 FIO | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).