COM vs FRO
Como (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 64.6% fair 1.55
Draw 19.5% fair 5.12
FRO win 15.8% fair 6.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.0% / 18.1% / 12.9%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.28
—
0.88
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 FRO | 11.1% | |
| COM 1-0 FRO | 9.7% | |
| COM 2-1 FRO | 9.7% | |
| COM 1-1 FRO | 8.5% | |
| COM 3-0 FRO | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).