COM vs GEN
Como (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 64.0% fair 1.56
Draw 20.5% fair 4.88
GEN win 15.5% fair 6.44
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 67.0% / 19.6% / 13.4%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.09
—
0.81
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 GEN | 12.1% | |
| COM 1-0 GEN | 11.5% | |
| COM 2-1 GEN | 9.7% | |
| COM 1-1 GEN | 9.3% | |
| COM 3-0 GEN | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).