COM vs LAZ
Como (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 49.6% fair 2.02
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
LAZ win 25.1% fair 3.98
Expected Goals
COM
1.59
—
1.02
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 LAZ | 11.9% | |
| COM 1-0 LAZ | 11.7% | |
| COM 2-1 LAZ | 9.5% | |
| COM 2-0 LAZ | 9.3% | |
| COM 0-1 LAZ | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).