COM vs LEC
Como (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 65.5% fair 1.53
Draw 20.1% fair 4.97
LEC win 14.4% fair 6.96
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.8% / 19.2% / 12.1%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.10
—
0.74
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | fair 2.18 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 LEC | 12.9% | |
| COM 1-0 LEC | 12.3% | |
| COM 2-1 LEC | 9.5% | |
| COM 1-1 LEC | 9.1% | |
| COM 3-0 LEC | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).