COM vs MIL
Como (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 44.8% fair 2.23
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
MIL win 29.7% fair 3.37
Expected Goals
COM
1.53
—
1.19
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 MIL | 12.0% | |
| COM 1-0 MIL | 10.1% | |
| COM 2-1 MIL | 9.2% | |
| COM 0-1 MIL | 7.8% | |
| COM 2-0 MIL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).