COM vs MON
Como (home) vs Monza · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 67.4% fair 1.48
Draw 18.1% fair 5.53
MON win 14.5% fair 6.88
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.1% / 16.4% / 11.5%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.47
—
0.89
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 MON | 10.6% | |
| COM 2-1 MON | 9.4% | |
| COM 3-0 MON | 8.7% | |
| COM 1-0 MON | 8.6% | |
| COM 3-1 MON | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).