COM vs NAP
Como (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 45.6% fair 2.19
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
NAP win 29.1% fair 3.44
Expected Goals
COM
1.55
—
1.18
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 NAP | 11.9% | |
| COM 1-0 NAP | 10.1% | |
| COM 2-1 NAP | 9.3% | |
| COM 2-0 NAP | 7.9% | |
| COM 0-1 NAP | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).