COM vs PAR
Como (home) vs Parma · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
COM win 59.5% fair 1.68
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
PAR win 17.3% fair 5.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.6% / 22.5% / 14.9%.
Expected Goals
COM
1.80
—
0.74
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-0 PAR | 14.3% | |
| COM 2-0 PAR | 12.8% | |
| COM 1-1 PAR | 10.5% | |
| COM 2-1 PAR | 9.4% | |
| COM 0-0 PAR | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).