COM vs ROM
Como (home) vs Roma · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
COM win 41.2% fair 2.43
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
ROM win 33.1% fair 3.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.0% / 25.5% / 33.4%.
Expected Goals
COM
1.45
—
1.28
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 ROM | 12.1% | |
| COM 1-0 ROM | 9.4% | |
| COM 2-1 ROM | 8.8% | |
| COM 0-1 ROM | 8.3% | |
| COM 1-2 ROM | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).