COM vs ROM
Como (home) vs Roma · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 0-0 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
COM win 39.4% fair 2.54
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
ROM win 36.4% fair 2.74
Expected Goals
COM
1.58
—
1.54
ROM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): COM ×1.100 (matched 11), ROM ×1.100 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 ROM | 10.7% | |
| COM 2-1 ROM | 8.5% | |
| COM 1-2 ROM | 8.3% | |
| COM 1-0 ROM | 7.0% | |
| COM 0-1 ROM | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).