COM vs TOR
Como (home) vs Torino · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 62.4% fair 1.60
Draw 20.2% fair 4.94
TOR win 17.4% fair 5.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 65.2% / 19.3% / 15.5%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.19
—
0.97
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 TOR | 10.2% | |
| COM 2-1 TOR | 9.9% | |
| COM 1-0 TOR | 9.3% | |
| COM 1-1 TOR | 9.0% | |
| COM 3-0 TOR | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).