COM vs UDI
Como (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 63.5% fair 1.57
Draw 20.0% fair 4.99
UDI win 16.4% fair 6.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.5% / 19.1% / 14.4%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.19
—
0.91
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 UDI | 10.8% | |
| COM 2-1 UDI | 9.8% | |
| COM 1-0 UDI | 9.8% | |
| COM 1-1 UDI | 9.0% | |
| COM 3-0 UDI | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).