COM vs VEN
Como (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
COM win 64.9% fair 1.54
Draw 19.8% fair 5.05
VEN win 15.3% fair 6.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 70.8% / 17.9% / 11.2%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.23
—
0.76
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 VEN | 12.5% | |
| COM 1-0 VEN | 11.3% | |
| COM 2-1 VEN | 9.5% | |
| COM 3-0 VEN | 9.3% | |
| COM 1-1 VEN | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).