COM vs VEN
Como (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COM win 69.5% fair 1.44
Draw 17.7% fair 5.64
VEN win 12.8% fair 7.83
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 74.8% / 15.9% / 9.3%.
Expected Goals
COM
2.42
—
0.72
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 2-0 VEN | 12.6% | |
| COM 1-0 VEN | 10.4% | |
| COM 3-0 VEN | 10.2% | |
| COM 2-1 VEN | 9.1% | |
| COM 1-1 VEN | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).