FIO vs ATA
Fiorentina (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
ATA win 45.4% fair 2.20
Expected Goals
FIO
1.30
—
1.71
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 ATA | 11.0% | |
| FIO 1-2 ATA | 9.4% | |
| FIO 0-1 ATA | 8.5% | |
| FIO 0-2 ATA | 7.2% | |
| FIO 2-1 ATA | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).