FIO vs ATA
Fiorentina (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
FIO win 30.2% fair 3.31
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
ATA win 44.4% fair 2.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.3% / 25.2% / 46.5%.
Expected Goals
FIO
1.15
—
1.55
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 ATA | 12.0% | |
| FIO 0-1 ATA | 10.4% | |
| FIO 1-2 ATA | 9.3% | |
| FIO 0-2 ATA | 8.0% | |
| FIO 1-0 ATA | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).