FIO vs BOL
Fiorentina (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 33.3% fair 3.01
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
BOL win 41.1% fair 2.43
Expected Goals
FIO
1.26
—
1.48
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 BOL | 12.1% | |
| FIO 0-1 BOL | 9.6% | |
| FIO 1-2 BOL | 8.9% | |
| FIO 1-0 BOL | 8.1% | |
| FIO 2-1 BOL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).