FIO vs CAG
Fiorentina (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
FIO win 40.9% fair 2.45
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
CAG win 33.0% fair 3.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.7% / 26.0% / 33.3%.
Expected Goals
FIO
1.41
—
1.25
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 CAG | 12.3% | |
| FIO 1-0 CAG | 9.9% | |
| FIO 0-1 CAG | 8.8% | |
| FIO 2-1 CAG | 8.7% | |
| FIO 1-2 CAG | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).