FIO vs CAG
Fiorentina (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 40.3% fair 2.48
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
CAG win 33.3% fair 3.00
Expected Goals
FIO
1.37
—
1.23
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 CAG | 12.5% | |
| FIO 1-0 CAG | 10.1% | |
| FIO 0-1 CAG | 9.1% | |
| FIO 2-1 CAG | 8.6% | |
| FIO 1-2 CAG | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).