FIO vs COM
Fiorentina (home) vs Como · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
FIO win 26.4% fair 3.79
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
COM win 49.3% fair 2.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.5% / 23.9% / 52.6%.
Expected Goals
FIO
1.07
—
1.72
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 COM | 11.3% | |
| FIO 0-1 COM | 10.6% | |
| FIO 1-2 COM | 9.7% | |
| FIO 0-2 COM | 9.1% | |
| FIO 1-0 COM | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).