FIO vs GEN
Fiorentina (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 42.6% fair 2.35
Draw 25.7% fair 3.88
GEN win 31.6% fair 3.16
Expected Goals
FIO
1.47
—
1.23
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 GEN | 12.1% | |
| FIO 1-0 GEN | 9.8% | |
| FIO 2-1 GEN | 8.9% | |
| FIO 0-1 GEN | 8.2% | |
| FIO 1-2 GEN | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).