FIO vs INT
Fiorentina (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 16.6% fair 6.01
Draw 17.8% fair 5.60
INT win 65.5% fair 1.53
Expected Goals
FIO
1.07
—
2.54
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.8% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.2% | fair 3.31 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-2 INT | 9.3% | |
| FIO 0-2 INT | 8.8% | |
| FIO 1-3 INT | 7.9% | |
| FIO 0-3 INT | 7.4% | |
| FIO 1-1 INT | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 3.9 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).