FIO vs JUV
Fiorentina (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
FIO win 27.7% fair 3.61
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
JUV win 47.2% fair 2.12
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.5% / 24.8% / 49.6%.
Expected Goals
FIO
1.08
—
1.61
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 JUV | 11.8% | |
| FIO 0-1 JUV | 10.9% | |
| FIO 1-2 JUV | 9.5% | |
| FIO 0-2 JUV | 8.8% | |
| FIO 1-0 JUV | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).