FIO vs JUV
Fiorentina (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 26.6% fair 3.76
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
JUV win 49.0% fair 2.04
Expected Goals
FIO
1.10
—
1.69
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 JUV | 11.4% | |
| FIO 0-1 JUV | 10.3% | |
| FIO 1-2 JUV | 9.6% | |
| FIO 0-2 JUV | 8.7% | |
| FIO 1-0 JUV | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).