FIO vs LAZ
Fiorentina (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 28.9% fair 3.46
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
LAZ win 45.7% fair 2.19
Expected Goals
FIO
1.12
—
1.56
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 LAZ | 12.0% | |
| FIO 0-1 LAZ | 10.7% | |
| FIO 1-2 LAZ | 9.3% | |
| FIO 0-2 LAZ | 8.3% | |
| FIO 1-0 LAZ | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).