FIO vs LEC
Fiorentina (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 44.7% fair 2.24
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
LEC win 29.3% fair 3.41
Expected Goals
FIO
1.48
—
1.13
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 LEC | 12.3% | |
| FIO 1-0 LEC | 10.8% | |
| FIO 2-1 LEC | 9.1% | |
| FIO 0-1 LEC | 8.3% | |
| FIO 2-0 LEC | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).