FIO vs MIL
Fiorentina (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 24.5% fair 4.09
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
MIL win 52.1% fair 1.92
Expected Goals
FIO
1.08
—
1.81
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 MIL | 10.8% | |
| FIO 0-1 MIL | 10.1% | |
| FIO 1-2 MIL | 9.8% | |
| FIO 0-2 MIL | 9.1% | |
| FIO 1-0 MIL | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).