FIO vs MON
Fiorentina (home) vs Monza · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 45.9% fair 2.18
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
MON win 30.1% fair 3.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.6% / 23.4% / 30.0%.
Expected Goals
FIO
1.74
—
1.36
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.1% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 MON | 10.6% | |
| FIO 2-1 MON | 9.3% | |
| FIO 1-0 MON | 7.8% | |
| FIO 1-2 MON | 7.2% | |
| FIO 2-0 MON | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).