FIO vs NAP
Fiorentina (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
FIO win 25.6% fair 3.91
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
NAP win 50.0% fair 2.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.3% / 24.0% / 52.8%.
Expected Goals
FIO
1.05
—
1.70
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 NAP | 11.4% | |
| FIO 0-1 NAP | 10.9% | |
| FIO 1-2 NAP | 9.7% | |
| FIO 0-2 NAP | 9.3% | |
| FIO 1-0 NAP | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).