FIO vs NAP
Fiorentina (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FIO win 20.5% fair 4.87
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
NAP win 57.7% fair 1.73
Expected Goals
FIO
0.97
—
1.99
NAP
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): FIO ×0.900 (matched 10), NAP ×1.097 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 0-1 NAP | 10.3% | |
| FIO 0-2 NAP | 10.2% | |
| FIO 1-1 NAP | 10.0% | |
| FIO 1-2 NAP | 10.0% | |
| FIO 0-3 NAP | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).