FIO vs PAR
Fiorentina (home) vs Parma · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 44.3% fair 2.26
Draw 27.0% fair 3.70
PAR win 28.7% fair 3.49
Expected Goals
FIO
1.38
—
1.04
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.77 |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-1 PAR | 12.8% | |
| FIO 1-0 PAR | 12.2% | |
| FIO 0-1 PAR | 9.2% | |
| FIO 0-0 PAR | 8.9% | |
| FIO 2-1 PAR | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).