FIO vs ROM
Fiorentina (home) vs Roma · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FIO win 19.9% fair 5.03
Draw 20.9% fair 4.78
ROM win 59.2% fair 1.69
Expected Goals
FIO
1.02
—
2.11
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| FIO 1-2 ROM | 9.9% | |
| FIO 0-2 ROM | 9.7% | |
| FIO 1-1 ROM | 9.4% | |
| FIO 0-1 ROM | 9.2% | |
| FIO 1-3 ROM | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FIO goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).